I have been betting on sports for many many years, and I have paid, yes you hear me right, I did pay for picks, and none, I repeat none has ever worked out for me. It makes sense why that is so. If someone is that good, why would they not just bet on themselves. Who needs the extra money!!!!
I even used one who claimed to win 18 years in a row. Well I lost with them, and they claimed to win 19 in a row. I think I thought when he said he won 18 years in a row, I thought he meant his clients. He meant himself by fooling others that he could win them money, and hey, maybe he got lucky a year or two and did. Even a blind Squirrel can find a nut!
Point being, never pay for picks.
So with this in mind, I will never charge for my picks. I have spent hours of collecting data and looking at trends. And these I am going to share with you.
All I ask is that you pass my blog onto others. It would be nice to make some money if I can get a lot of people to check out my blog. And hey if you win some money from my picks, you can always send money to my paypal as a way to say thanks. Think of it as a tip.
So here is my big tip for week 1. This is a tip, and I will have my picks out before week 1.
Trend for week 1- Home teams playing divisional games, have a great % in covering. If you tease it by 6 it turns to over 80%. Unders plus 6 are also huge. The last two years, if you played everygame and teased by 6, so you are giving 6 to the home team and taking 6 to the total and going under, you would be 85% correct. 12 out of 14 won.
Of course I wouldn't suggest playing everygame, but I will have a couple ones I feel very strongly about.
Wednesday, August 24, 2011
Monday, July 28, 2008
The First Round and my thoughts.......
1) Tomlinson- You have to go with LT with the first pick. He is proven, he is on good team, and they rest him during the preseason, so he doesn't get burnt out. He is due to be a burn out this year, but the same was said last year.
2) Adrian Peterson- I am glad I don't have the second pick this year. I can't think of anyone better than AP here. My worry, sophomore slump. Teams are onto him, and the passing attack in Minn, doesn't scare me.
3/4) Joseph Addai/Westbrook- This is a tough one. I like Addai with Manning at QB. If Manning isnt healthy, I would go with Westbrook. I am not in love with either, because they both get hurt all the time. Westbrook has never played everygame in a season, and last year he got a lot of yards on his legs. Both are on good teams, and a running back on a good team is a good thing.
5) Steven Jackson- Had a good ending to last year, and I might take him #3. Remember all of this is before the preseason, so things might change before I draft. I would like to see how the O-line does.
6) Frank Gore- With the 6th pick Gore is good. I am not about the Brady train, but if your league is heavy on QB's, I would have Brady as high as #4. In my league, I only get 4 pts for a TD and 2 points for every 50 yrds.
7) Tom Brady- I am sure he would be taken by now. I had him last year and won it with him. Very doubtful he will put up the same numbers as last year. I think the Pats run more this year anyways.
8) Peyton Manning- This could go down from here, depending on his health. If he is healthy, I would grab him here and grab a decent RB after.
9) Randy Moss- This one is a tough one, but if I follow the rules that have helped me win numerous fantasy football leagues, it is not to reach for Clinton Portis Or Barber here, and grab my stud.
10) Marion Barber- I like Barber better than Portis. He is healthy and will get the ball more than last year. He will probably split some carries and that is why he drops to 10, but with a good team, I would be very happy getting him here.
11) Clinton Portis/Marshawn Lynch- I think you can switch swap here with these two. I don't know enough about Lynch's legal issues, but with a pick this late, grab one and maybe TO on the way back to make you feel better.
2) Adrian Peterson- I am glad I don't have the second pick this year. I can't think of anyone better than AP here. My worry, sophomore slump. Teams are onto him, and the passing attack in Minn, doesn't scare me.
3/4) Joseph Addai/Westbrook- This is a tough one. I like Addai with Manning at QB. If Manning isnt healthy, I would go with Westbrook. I am not in love with either, because they both get hurt all the time. Westbrook has never played everygame in a season, and last year he got a lot of yards on his legs. Both are on good teams, and a running back on a good team is a good thing.
5) Steven Jackson- Had a good ending to last year, and I might take him #3. Remember all of this is before the preseason, so things might change before I draft. I would like to see how the O-line does.
6) Frank Gore- With the 6th pick Gore is good. I am not about the Brady train, but if your league is heavy on QB's, I would have Brady as high as #4. In my league, I only get 4 pts for a TD and 2 points for every 50 yrds.
7) Tom Brady- I am sure he would be taken by now. I had him last year and won it with him. Very doubtful he will put up the same numbers as last year. I think the Pats run more this year anyways.
8) Peyton Manning- This could go down from here, depending on his health. If he is healthy, I would grab him here and grab a decent RB after.
9) Randy Moss- This one is a tough one, but if I follow the rules that have helped me win numerous fantasy football leagues, it is not to reach for Clinton Portis Or Barber here, and grab my stud.
10) Marion Barber- I like Barber better than Portis. He is healthy and will get the ball more than last year. He will probably split some carries and that is why he drops to 10, but with a good team, I would be very happy getting him here.
11) Clinton Portis/Marshawn Lynch- I think you can switch swap here with these two. I don't know enough about Lynch's legal issues, but with a pick this late, grab one and maybe TO on the way back to make you feel better.
You've done your homework
You researched and you have an early draft, what next.....
With the early draft, you have to remember that players will get hurt and others will lose their starting jobs. You have to keep that in mind when drafting players like Fred Taylor. So before you get started, make a list of players by position in order that you like them.
For example
LT
Adrian Peterson
Brian Westbrook
Joseph Addai
..............
On your list, you want to give certain players a certain level. For example the ones I listed, I might have as my #1 studs. Do this for every position and try and get a player in each postion listed as #1. This might be difficult, especially if you draft 10th, but if you are 10th, and every #1 RB is gone, but you have a #1 WR out there, you dont want to reach for a #2 RB.
The secret of drafting is being flexible. If you have the 10th pick, you aren't going to get Tomlinson, Addai, Westbrook, and hey if they are there, you have a slam dunk. Most of the time they are not slam dunks. You have to make choices, and this list will help you. With the 10th pick , Marion Barber, Clinto Portis, Willie Mcgahee probably will be there. Each of them are not studs and have risk, so you look at what else is there, maybe not in a RB, you have TO, Reggie Wayne, as it is right now, if I had to pick with those 3 RBS there, I would take Marion Barber and MCGahee is he was there afterwards. TO is no young chicken and I've been burned by him in the past and with Manning being hurt, not sure I am aboard the Reggie Wayne train as a first rounder anyway.
You have to be flexible when drafting, what you think will happen might not, and even though you want to draft a wr, you might not be able to. As a rule, especially in the first couple of rounds, pick the best player and then work on the holes. There will always be holes.
One year I took 2 Wr's with my first 2 picks. My rb position was weak all year, so I concentrated on that in the later rounds in hopes of getting sleepers, but my 3 wr's helped me make it to the playoffs. I never really recovered from the weak backfield, but I didn't reach and grab a second or third tier rb.
With the early draft, you have to remember that players will get hurt and others will lose their starting jobs. You have to keep that in mind when drafting players like Fred Taylor. So before you get started, make a list of players by position in order that you like them.
For example
LT
Adrian Peterson
Brian Westbrook
Joseph Addai
..............
On your list, you want to give certain players a certain level. For example the ones I listed, I might have as my #1 studs. Do this for every position and try and get a player in each postion listed as #1. This might be difficult, especially if you draft 10th, but if you are 10th, and every #1 RB is gone, but you have a #1 WR out there, you dont want to reach for a #2 RB.
The secret of drafting is being flexible. If you have the 10th pick, you aren't going to get Tomlinson, Addai, Westbrook, and hey if they are there, you have a slam dunk. Most of the time they are not slam dunks. You have to make choices, and this list will help you. With the 10th pick , Marion Barber, Clinto Portis, Willie Mcgahee probably will be there. Each of them are not studs and have risk, so you look at what else is there, maybe not in a RB, you have TO, Reggie Wayne, as it is right now, if I had to pick with those 3 RBS there, I would take Marion Barber and MCGahee is he was there afterwards. TO is no young chicken and I've been burned by him in the past and with Manning being hurt, not sure I am aboard the Reggie Wayne train as a first rounder anyway.
You have to be flexible when drafting, what you think will happen might not, and even though you want to draft a wr, you might not be able to. As a rule, especially in the first couple of rounds, pick the best player and then work on the holes. There will always be holes.
One year I took 2 Wr's with my first 2 picks. My rb position was weak all year, so I concentrated on that in the later rounds in hopes of getting sleepers, but my 3 wr's helped me make it to the playoffs. I never really recovered from the weak backfield, but I didn't reach and grab a second or third tier rb.
Tuesday, July 22, 2008
Preparing for your draft
It's still early, but its about that time to pay attention to off season moves and start see what people are saying the top 3 should be.
Big offseason moves have already happened, Jermey Shockey is now on the Saints and Jason Taylor is on the Redskins. Not earth moving changes, but things to keep in mind. What comes to my mind, Jeremy Shockey will be picked earlier, and good for that other team. I actually like Kevin Boss, but I am in a draft with lots of Giant's fans, so I doubt I can get him really cheap.
But let that lead me to a big rule in fantasy football. Everyone likes to draft players on the teams that they like. Don't be that team. I know that it sucks to play against a player on your favorite team, but hey if your team wins the Superbowl, do they pay you? PLAY WITH YOUR HEAD NOT YOUR HEART.
So now is the time to prepare. Look at all the offseason moves, get an idea on who is playing where. It's time to get into the football frame of mind.
Big offseason moves have already happened, Jermey Shockey is now on the Saints and Jason Taylor is on the Redskins. Not earth moving changes, but things to keep in mind. What comes to my mind, Jeremy Shockey will be picked earlier, and good for that other team. I actually like Kevin Boss, but I am in a draft with lots of Giant's fans, so I doubt I can get him really cheap.
But let that lead me to a big rule in fantasy football. Everyone likes to draft players on the teams that they like. Don't be that team. I know that it sucks to play against a player on your favorite team, but hey if your team wins the Superbowl, do they pay you? PLAY WITH YOUR HEAD NOT YOUR HEART.
So now is the time to prepare. Look at all the offseason moves, get an idea on who is playing where. It's time to get into the football frame of mind.
Friday, July 18, 2008
My First Post
With Football right around the corner, I thought it would be a good idea to create a blog about football for everyone. This is my first blog, so I have no idea how this works, but I hope that this takes off. I have had a lot of good luck with fantasy football, made the playoffs in every league for the past 5 years, so that must mean I know what I am talking about. Either that or I play with people that don't. I promise you that I know what I am talking about, as you will see from future blogs.
I am currently doing research on this years draft and will come out with future blogs about how to draft coming soon. Please feel free to ask me any questions.
I am currently doing research on this years draft and will come out with future blogs about how to draft coming soon. Please feel free to ask me any questions.
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